Why Technosylva runs half a billion simulations daily

Every morning, utility managers across the United States receive detailed reports that could determine whether millions of customers keep their power or face blackouts. Sometimes, the intelligence behind these critical decisions comes from Technosylva’s sophisticated wildfire prediction system, which processes half a billion fire simulations daily.

“Basically what we’re trying to understand is any potential fire that could start in any part of the landscape for the next five days,” explained Joaquin Ramirez, founder and CTO of Technosylva, during a recent interview on the With Great Power podcast. “What if a fire starts at any moment of those five days? What is going to be the potential impact of the fire?”

The company’s dynamic risk forecast model represents a dramatic shift from traditional firefighting approaches. Rather than simply responding to fires after they start, Technosylva helps utilities and fire agencies prevent catastrophic incidents through predictive intelligence.

“In the western U.S. we’re running about half a billion simulations every day and we’re expanding to the east,” Ramirez noted. “So we’re very close to getting to a billion simulations every day.”

These simulations integrate multiple data streams, like extreme weather conditions, vegetation moisture levels, wind patterns, and topographical factors, to create comprehensive risk assessments. And the modeling accounts for regional variations in risk tolerance, recognizing that 70-mile-per-hour winds might be routine in Wyoming but catastrophic in Georgia.

Surgical precision for power shutoffs

The company’s intelligence is especially valuable for public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), the controversial practice of cutting electricity during extreme fire conditions. Technosylva’s analysis helps utilities determine not just whether to implement shutoffs, but exactly when and where they’re needed.

“It’s absolutely critical that it has to be done in an extremely surgical way,” said Ramirez. “We’re talking about reducing the number of hours, the size of a PSPS at a minimum.”

The dynamic risk forecasting model provides utilities with precise risk assessments, identifying when conditions reach the “99.5 percentile of this historical dataset.” This granular analysis enables utilities to set specific thresholds for different alert levels, from initial concern to full PSPS implementation.

“Our modeling tells them…this specific circuit at this time of the day — considering 30 years of data, considering what we see right now with the weather stations — we feel that this event is really extreme,” Ramirez said. The five-day advance forecasting capability allows utilities to communicate with customers well before potential shutoffs, improving both safety and customer satisfaction.

After starting work with San Diego Gas and Electric in 2010 following the massive Witch Creek Fire, Technosylva expanded its partnership with California’s fire agencies. Since 2019, the company has supported more than 70,000 fire incidents, working closely with Cal Fire to refine their modeling systems.

But today, Technosylva’s reach extends far beyond California, operating across 11 countries and serving utilities, regulators, and fire agencies worldwide. The company has expanded its services to states including Florida, Texas, Virginia, and North Carolina, reflecting a growing recognition that wildfire risk isn’t geographically limited.

“I think that the Lahaina fire just started to make everybody aware,” Ramirez said, referencing the 2023 fire that destroyed the historic Maui town. “To be honest, it’s an everywhere problem.”

The company’s approach recognizes that catastrophic impact isn’t solely about fire size. “It doesn’t need to be a 100,000-acre fire to be impactful when a fire or when an event is bigger than your capabilities,” Ramirez noted.

Beyond prediction, Technosylva emphasizes that human expertise is needed to interpret and act on complex data. The company’s intelligence services team includes experienced fire behavioral analysts, meteorologists, and former incident commanders with decades of field experience.

“At the end of the day, the most important thing is the human factor,” Ramirez emphasized. “We need to help the utilities face this new environment.”

That said, looking ahead, Ramirez sees artificial intelligence playing an increasingly important role in distilling vast amounts of data into actionable insights. The company is working with Microsoft’s AI for Good team to develop new approaches for managing complex information.

“I think that we have a great opportunity with what AI is bringing us to refine the amount of information that is needed to make more informed decisions,” he said.

Despite the technological sophistication, Ramirez’s ultimate focus remains on protecting communities. “When I see a map of our results, I don’t see lines on the map or red or green,” he said. “What I see is schools, hospitals, crews, families in the path of a fire.”

For Technosylva, turning uncertainty into readiness means ensuring that advanced technology serves a fundamentally human purpose: keeping people safe.

For the full conversation with Joaquin Ramirez, listen to his interview on With Great Power here.

With Great Power is a show about the people building the future grid, today. It’s a co-production of GridX and Latitude Studios. Subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you get your shows.

Read the original article from Latitude Media here.